Polls: No Clear Majority at Next Municipal Election

Polls suggest a close fight for the town hall

Polls undertaken by Sigma Dos in Ronda suggest the next municipal elections may not see a clear majority for any of the sitting parties forcing a coalition government, either a Marín Lara PSOE led leftist council, or Mari Paz Fernandez PP led centre-right council.

The current council is comprised seven PSOE councillors, four Partido Polular (PP) councillors, nine Partido Andalucista (PA), and one Izquierdo Unida (IU), though in mid 2009 Mayor Antonio Marín Lara and the remaining eight PA councillors crossed to the PSOE, giving the PSOE an overwhelming majority in the current council.

Their move wasn’t without controversy and lengthy legal moves by opposition parties to have them declared turncoat, as well as an investigation by the anti-turncoat monitoring commission, La Comisión de Seguimiento del Pacto Antitransfuguismo. The decision of the commission was that Mayor Lara and his eight former PA councillors had become turncoats and would need to be expelled from the PSOE, which would have forced them to stand as independents. The PSOE in Ronda disputed this citing the virtual collapse of the PA throughout Andalucía as offering an excuse for their actions, and thus refusing to expel the turncoats, most of whom are now expected to find top ranking places in the next PSOE list.

Nationally the PP has been polling well, and in Ronda too, though not enough to expect an outright PP victory in the local municipal election. The PP’s current spokesperson Mari Paz Fernandez is expected to lead the PP into the election riding on high personal approval ratings though sources within the PP indicate Ms Fernandez has considered standing down. Our expectation is that she has the support of the party faithful in Ronda and will remain until after the next election at which point we could see her leave politics altogether if the PP finds itself in opposition.

The PA have reformed in Ronda under Isabel Barriga and are looking very good for the next election, perhaps polling in third place behind the PP. Their isn’t much love between the PA and PSOE after Lara’s defection so its unlikely we’ll see a second PSOE/PA coalition; at least nobody in Ronda is expecting a Lara led PSOE to find favour with the current PA party faithful.

So, what are the polls suggesting for the next election? Well it’s a confusing picture and nothing seems certain, the PSOE led by Marín Lara is most likely to be the biggest party but polls are suggesting they could be two to three seats short of a majority, probably being returned with between seven and eight seats forcing Lara and the PSOE to enter a coalition with another party. Their natural coalition partners have been quite vocal about Lara and the other PA councillors joining the PSOE so a PSOE/IU coalition could be a hard bargain if it happens.

The PP by comparison could expect six or seven seats, not enough to even govern in minority, but certainly enough to form a government if they can enter a coalition with the PA who are expected to reclaim 5 seats. A PP/PA coalition would likely hold eleven or twelve seats, enough to block any PSOE led coalition from forming, though the real uncertainty comes from the Unión Progreso y Democracia (UDyP), a new national party formed with the goal of cleaning up Spanish politics.

In Ronda the UDyP is expecting to field a full list of candidates under María Jesús Becerra and could take one or two seats but nobody knows which of the existing parties will lose out most to UDyP given the controversy of Lara and his group joining the PSOE, or the sometimes vicious infighting the PP has seen. Nationally Prime Minister Zapatero has lost significant support, in complete contrast to the PSOE is Ronda, whilst the leader of the PP, Manuel Rajoy is enjoying a level of confidence that could easily bolster the hopes of PP faithful in Ronda.

Ronda is a small city, the town council is made up of just 21 councillors of all parties, and with such a close poll between PSOE and the PP, and the uncertainty of how many seats the PA and UDyP could take, we know the next municipal election is going to be interesting. It’s too early to make predictions, most of the parties haven’t yet confirmed their lists or who will lead them, but we could be looking at a PP led coalition if current polls are anything to go by.